GENERAL ASSEMBLY
Preparation for November 2024 Veto Session. The Illinois General Assembly will convene for Veto Session next week.
The wide-ranging veto powers granted by the Constitution of Illinois to the Governor means that the General Assembly always sets aside time on its end-of-year calendar for a veto session. The times set aside are two three-day session weeks long, each week set aside for the use of each of the two chambers. In November 2024, the Illinois House will reconvene on Tuesday, November 12. If necessary, the House will meet again for up to three days starting on Tuesday of the following week, November 19.
BUDGET
$3.2 billion State budget deficit projected for FY26. The Governor’s Office of Management and Budget (GOMB) this week issued a projection of Illinois’ budget forecast for Fiscal Year 2026. The budget projection, contained within its annual “Illinois Economic and Fiscal Policy Report,” includes forecasts of State revenues and expenditures for the approaching fiscal year, which will start on July 1, 2025. The newly elected Illinois General Assembly will have to vote on the FY26 budget in spring 2025.
The GOMB forecast, which included an analysis of current State revenue and expenditure trends, took account of the stagnant current revenue trend numbers reported by the Illinois Department of Revenue (IDOR) to the Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (CGFA). In addition, GOMB utilized economic forecast projections generated by economic forecaster S&P Global. These projections utilize worldwide data on changes in interest rates, labor market growth, and overall GDP growth, and their effects on the Illinois economy. These trend lines indicate continued stagnation in State tax revenues moving forward, as flat-lined Illinois employment numbers and consumer spending patterns are expected to lead to near-zero growth in Illinois income tax and sales tax payments to IDOR.
By contrast, “locked-in” State spending numbers continue to soar. The State is already committed, through contracts with organized labor and promises made to key interest groups (such as recipients of vested pension benefits, and school districts), to generating a massive increase in expenditures in FY26. Based on this pattern of stagnant (or worse) revenues and soaring spending, GOMB this week issued a preliminary projection that the FY26 budget will be $3.2 billion out of balance.
The projected $3.2 billion deficit is separate and independent from any additional spending pressures that could be generated by new or expanded programs initiated by the General Assembly or by the Governor.
State income tax receipts decline in October. State receipts from payments of personal and corporate income tax, a traditional bellwether of State revenues as a whole, flashed negative signals in October 2024. Relative to the comparable year-earlier month, October 2023, personal income tax receipts were down $5 million in October 2024, and corporate income tax receipts were down $94 million. Various underlying reasons have led to sharp fluctuations in corporate income tax filings and payments in recent months. The overall trend in the corporate income tax line, however, continues to be downward (down $255 million in the four-month period the began July 1 and ended October 31).
Continued declines in State income tax receipts could relate to ongoing increases in the State unemployment rate. Most income tax receipts are derived from taxes withheld from Illinois employee paychecks, and when fewer people are receiving a paycheck, income tax receipts decrease. Illinois sales tax receipts also declined during this four-month period (down $120 million), although they were flat in October 2024.
FIRST RESPONDERS
Chicago police officer killed in the line of duty. The homicide of Chicago police officer Enrique Martinez took place during a traffic stop on Monday, November 4. The incident in Chicago’s high-crime East Chatham neighborhood led to multiple injuries and arrests, including serious injury to another police officer.
A spokesman for the Chicago Police Department later revealed that Darian McMillan, the man charged in the killing, had previously been assigned to electronic monitoring and had apparently cut off his monitoring anklet. The suspect was supposed to have been continuously monitored after he was accused of attempting to defraud a drug/alcohol screening test. The drug/alcohol test was ordered after the suspect had previously been convicted of a separate felony.
Despite the electronic monitoring order and anklet, defendant McMillan was allegedly out on the Chicago streets while in possession of an automatic firearm. He was charged with two counts of murder, felony attempted murder, possession of a machine gun, and burglary.
Like other Illinois police officers killed in the line of duty, Officer Enrique Martinez will be immortalized on the Illinois Police Memorial located on the grounds of the Illinois State Capitol in Springfield.
HEALTH CARE
Illinois hospitals honored by new nationwide ranking. The “Best-in-State Hospitals” list for fall 2024, based on data compiled by Statista, honored 26 hospitals based in Illinois. The honors list was based on quality-of-care metrics, accreditation data, and satisfaction data registered by patients and health care professionals. More than 5,000 U.S. hospitals were evaluated for placement on the nationwide list.
In Illinois, top honors went to Rush University Medical Center on the Near West Side of Chicago. Other Chicago teaching hospitals scored highly, with Northwestern Memorial in River North at #2 and the University of Chicago Medical Center at #4. The Winfield, Ill.-based former Central DuPage Hospital, now Northwestern Medicine Central DuPage, was #3 and the highest-raking Illinois hospital located in the Chicago suburbs. Twenty-one of the 26 honored hospitals were in the Chicago metropolitan area, with five hospitals located Downstate.
JOBS
Holiday hiring trends downward. In line with recent years, the 2024 holiday season is set to pose challenges for those looking to obtain seasonal retail positions. Per a Challenger, Gray & Christmas analysis of Bureau of Labor Statistics data, U.S. retailers are only expected to take on 520,000 new workers this quarter; a 7.8% decrease from last year.
This year-over-year decrease in seasonal job offerings only provides a small glimpse into the larger trend the U.S. has seen in Q4 hiring. 2024’s projected total of 520,000 seasonal hires would be the second-fewest since 2009 and the third consecutive year with a figure below 600,000.
The Challenger report suggests that retailers’ restrained hiring pace could be attributed to a number of factors including more selective consumer spending. Following several years of high inflation and interest rates, many Americans have depleted their savings and are displaying more frugal buying patterns, focusing more on essentials than otherwise. According to Morning Consult, U.S. adults cut back discretionary purchases by more than 15% from July 2023 to July 2024, accounting for inflation. Americans are expected to remain somewhat hesitant to open their wallets for the remainder of the year with holiday spending estimated to rise just 3 percent from 2023, the slowest year-over-year increase since 2018. Given that inflation is expected to sit at around 2.5% at the end of the year, real volume holiday sales may only increase half a percent from the 2023 season.
The hassle of in-person holiday shopping has led many Americans to begin shopping online toward the end of the year. In 2024, holiday e-commerce sales are expected to reach $240 billion, an 8.4% increase from 2023. Though traditional retail positions will likely be less abundant this holiday season, the anticipated online shopping surge will provide plenty of opportunities for seasonal work elsewhere, especially in the delivery sector. Amazon recently announced they are hiring 250,000 workers in preparation for the holiday season, the same figure they announced last year. Courier services such as UPS are aiming to expand their workforce and provide 25% more seasonal opportunities than in 2023. While these hiring targets are reflective of just a few large companies, recent shifts made by both consumers and businesses regarding shopping should encourage those looking for seasonal work to make adjustments of their own and pursue transportation and customer fulfillment roles in future holiday seasons.
CORRUPTION
Madigan jurors hear ally complaining to speaker’s son about those who don’t get ‘what happens when you’re in this game.’ ComEd consultant Michael McClain sounded incredulous in 2018 after learning that a fellow player in the utility game had complained to a colleague about feeling pressure to hire someone with political connections.
“That’s what happens when you’re in this game,” McClain insisted in a phone call that was secretly recorded by the FBI. “And you never know, maybe someday you can ask for a favor. … Hello? Dumb s——.”
The person on the other end of that call was not Illinois House Speaker Michael J. Madigan, who resigned in 2021 and is now on trial with McClain for an alleged racketeering conspiracy. Rather, it was the Southwest Side Democrat’s son, Andrew Madigan. […]
Former ComEd executive Fidel Marquez, who wore a wire for the FBI in 2019 to avoid prison, spent a third day on the witness stand Thursday and has yet to be cross-examined. Still, prosecutors told the judge they may be able to find ways to streamline their case.
Michael Madigan is accused of leading a criminal enterprise designed to enhance his political power and enrich his allies, with McClain serving as his agent. While the call featuring Madigan’s son had previously been described in court documents, it had not been aired in court until now.
The call took place on May 23, 2018. Earlier, McClain had spoken to Marquez — who had not yet begun to wear a wire. The FBI had been secretly recording McClain’s phone calls, instead.
Marquez explained that a Peoples Gas representative had complained about being pushed “really hard” to hire onetime ComEd contractor Tom Volini, a friend of Madigan’s son.
Marquez told McClain he replied that “maybe one day you’ll have an ask and this will be remembered.”
“You know how this works, right?” Marquez said he told her.
McClain called Madigan’s son that evening to tell him about the chat with Marquez. McClain said “that’s how the sys[tem], it is, you can’t be offended with that. Oh, so you got pressure too, are you kidding me? Yeah, we got pressure. Okay, okay.”
Madigan’s son said, “that’s funny” and told McClain he appreciated the call. “It’s not easy working with people,” he added.
“Yeah, I mean, it’d be easier if everybody would just obey right?” McClain said.
Read more on the Madigan Trial from the Chicago Sun-Times.